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Ethereum’s Path to Reclaiming Glory: Analyzing the Bitwise Recovery Thesis

Ethereum’s Path to Reclaiming Glory: Analyzing the Bitwise Recovery Thesis

Published:
2026-01-23 07:51:14
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A new analytical framework from Bitwise suggests ethereum (ETH) may be on the cusp of a historic recovery, potentially retesting its all-time highs. The thesis draws compelling parallels between current market conditions and the early 2023 recovery pattern, identifying Q4 2025 as the likely bear market bottom. This analysis arrives at a pivotal moment, with on-chain data revealing a significant divergence: while retail investors have been reducing their exposure, whale entities—those transacting above $100,000—have dramatically increased their accumulation of ETH. This surge in high-value transactions, reaching levels not seen since September 2025, indicates strong institutional and high-net-worth investor confidence at current price levels. The behavior mirrors activity observed in the period preceding Ethereum's previous peak of $4,955, suggesting a similar foundational buildup is underway. Furthermore, the growing disconnect between ETH's price action and its robust underlying network activity is a classic hallmark of pre-bull market conditions, where asset price often lags behind fundamental strength and strategic accumulation. This sets the stage for a powerful convergence. If the Bitwise thesis holds, the market structure implies that the consolidation and accumulation phase may soon give way to a sustained upward trend, with the $4,955 high serving as a key psychological and technical target. The identified timeline points to a maturation of this cycle through 2026, making the current period a critical window for observing these foundational shifts. This analysis provides a data-driven narrative for Ethereum's potential resurgence, highlighting the strategic moves of large holders as a leading indicator for the broader market's direction.

Bitwise Recovery Thesis Suggests ETH May Retest All-Time Highs

Ethereum's market structure mirrors early 2023 recovery patterns, with Bitwise analysts identifying Q4 2025 as the likely bear market bottom. On-chain metrics show whales accumulating ETH at levels last seen before its $4,955 peak, while retail investors reduce exposure.

The divergence between price action and network activity resembles pre-bull market conditions. Whale transactions above $100k have surged to September 2025 levels, when ETH hit record highs. A supply crunch appears imminent as large holders absorb circulating coins.

Technical analysis highlights a multiyear trendline as critical support. The setup echoes 2023's recovery trajectory, where similar accumulation preceded a 300% rally. Market structure now suggests Q1 2026 could see comparable upside.

Q4 2025 Signals Potential End to Crypto Bear Market: Bitwise Report

Bitwise's latest analysis suggests the cryptocurrency market may be nearing the end of its prolonged bear cycle, despite price declines in Q4 2025. Ethereum's ecosystem demonstrated remarkable resilience, with record transaction volumes signaling accelerating adoption of blockchain technology.

Corporate earnings in the crypto sector outperformed traditional market benchmarks, while stablecoin market capitalization surged past $300 billion - a clear indicator of growing institutional confidence. Decentralized exchanges like Uniswap processed higher volumes than their centralized counterparts, underscoring DeFi's enduring appeal.

The report highlights a fundamental paradox: while asset prices retreated, network activity and financial metrics revealed an industry maturing through the downturn. Ethereum's scaling solutions and LAYER 2 networks processed unprecedented transaction loads, suggesting infrastructure improvements are bearing fruit.

Chainlink Expands Trading Support as ETH Dips; DeepSnitch AI Targets 300x Post-Launch

Chainlink is advancing its market infrastructure with 24/5 trading support for US stocks and ETFs, aiming to bridge the $80 trillion traditional market with on-chain platforms. The MOVE signals growing institutional adoption of blockchain technology for financial instruments.

Ethereum's price slipped below $3,000, creating volatility across crypto markets. Such pullbacks historically create fertile ground for standout presale opportunities.

DeepSnitch AI emerges as a presale contender with ambitious 300x return projections. The project's imminent launch is generating notable demand among investors scanning the presale calendar for high-potential entries.

Ethereum Dominates Tokenization Race as BlackRock Bets Big Despite Price Slump

Ethereum commands a 66% stranglehold on the tokenized real-world assets market, dwarfing competitors like BNB Chain (10%) and solana (5%). BlackRock's 2026 outlook positions ETH as the backbone of institutional tokenization, with Wall Street giants JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley accelerating investments through ETF filings and tokenized funds.

The iShares Ethereum Trust now holds $11 billion in assets, while digital treasury firm Bitmine added $100 million to its $13 billion position. Yet ETH trades at $2,944 - 40% below its peak - with technical indicators suggesting bulls must reclaim $3,050 to prevent further decline.

'Ethereum isn't just surviving the bear market, it's building the infrastructure for the next bull run,' said Jay Jacobs, BlackRock's US head of ETF products. The network's $362 billion valuation reflects what analysts call 'the AWS moment' for blockchain - where enterprise adoption eclipses speculative trading.

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